When US basketball star Brittney Griner was arrested in Russia in February of final yr, it might take roughly 10 months earlier than Washington managed to safe her launch in a prisoner swap.

That’s comparatively brief by the requirements of current prisoner negotiations between Moscow and Washington, and would possibly at first look provide a glimmer of hope to Evan Gershkovich, the Wall Avenue Journal journalist being held in a Russian jail after he was just lately charged with espionage.

Nevertheless, whereas each arrests seem to have been pushed by Moscow’s dedication to step up hostilities with the west, former and present US officers, in addition to individuals aware of the Russian authorized system, warn that Gershkovich faces a more durable and probably longer path to launch.

That’s primarily as a result of, not like Griner, who was charged with drug smuggling offences, Gershkovich has been accused of being an American spy.

“The Russians anticipate so much in return for an individual they think about a spy,” mentioned former US ambassador to Russia John Sullivan, who has labored on a number of prisoner exchanges, together with Griner’s.

Gershkovich, a 31-year-old New Jersey-born son of Soviet émigrés, was arrested on March 29 whereas engaged on what had been a dream task for The Wall Avenue Journal in Russia. The newspaper and US officers vehemently deny allegations he was working as a spy. On Monday, the US state division formally declared him wrongfully detained, which can escalate authorities efforts to work for his launch.

One different American is being held on espionage prices in Russia: Paul Whelan, a former US Marine and a company safety govt who was convicted in 2020 on espionage prices that he has denied. First arrested in 2018, Whelan has been handed over in different prisoner swaps, together with two final yr to free Griner and one other American, Trevor Reed.

Secretary of state Antony Blinken just lately mentioned the US had made a suggestion to Russia to safe Whelan’s freedom “some months” in the past.

The lengthy interval between Whelan’s detention and conviction might provide some perception into how lengthy Gershkovich’s ordeal would possibly final, mentioned Sullivan. “They won’t focus on interval, nothing, won’t focus on trades, standing of a detainee, et cetera, till that individual is convicted.”

Gershkovich has met along with his Russian legal professionals however American officers haven’t been capable of go to him in jail to evaluate his welfare or present help. He has pleaded not responsible to espionage prices and has filed an enchantment, in accordance with Russian state media, however little info is obtainable about his case or its timing. Espionage instances in Russia often proceed in secret trials with near-guaranteed convictions.

Even when Russian officers could also be ready to debate attainable trades, Moscow is predicted to demand so much to safe Gershkovich’s launch.

Former Democratic New Mexico governor Invoice Richardson, who has a basis that helps the households of Individuals detained abroad, mentioned US officers might discover it troublesome to resolve Gershkovich’s and Whelan’s instances individually. Moscow might attempt to search a number of prisoners in trade for returning the pair, he added.

“It’s going to be troublesome to convey Evan again with out Whelan,” mentioned Richardson, who has labored on a number of instances of US nationals being held in Russian prisons. “I’m virtually satisfied that the Russians will need prisoner trade and so they’re most likely going to ask for the kitchen sink, perhaps past the 2 for 2.”

Till any such trade, Gershkovich will stay an unwitting pawn within the diplomatic stand-off between Russia and the US, which has turn out to be more and more acrimonious towards the backdrop of the protracted warfare in Ukraine.

Buddies and colleagues say it’s harrowing to see their pal, a gregarious, proficient reporter — and dedicated Arsenal fan — turn out to be a part of the story that he had been devoted to telling. They level to the grim irony of his being held in an FSB jail in Moscow some 40 years after his mother and father fled Russia as a part of a Jewish migration wave.

“He wrote one insightful unique story after one other in regards to the flip that Russia has taken — it’s a tragic irony that he’s now a sufferer of the repressive flip,” mentioned Deborah Ball, one in every of Gershkovich’s editors on the Wall Avenue Journal.

Pjotr Sauer, a reporter at The Guardian who met Gershkovich whereas working on the Moscow Instances, mentioned: “Evan by no means needed to be the centre of the story. He needed to jot down the story.”

Gershkovich will be unable to look at Arsenal’s final Premier League recreation in London in Could as he had deliberate. However Sauer plans to ship Gershkovich common letters within the hope that they may attain him and let him know the way the workforce is doing.