A have a look at the provision/demand dynamic for Manhattan and Brooklyn leases means that rents are going up.

Regardless of worries about oversupply and decrease demand within the business sector, the other dynamic seems to be going down within the residential sector. The year-over-year change within the variety of new rental listings is beginning to fall because the market heads into the usually busy summer time.

Whereas the times of 30% and better lease will increase are probably previously, with present asking rents already approaching their highs, it won’t take a giant transfer to push previous these highs into report territory.

As an example, as seen above, the median asking lease in Manhattan is at the moment solely $50 beneath the record-high, set throughout the summer time of 2022. Even the slightest little bit of renter competitors will propel rents larger. Trying on the chart beneath, exhibiting the declining variety of new rental listings in Manhattan, it’s clear that issues are about to get attention-grabbing.

Brooklyn, too, is experiencing most of the similar points, albeit not as acutely as Manhattan. As seen beneath, the present median asking lease in Brooklyn is $3,600, 5% beneath the report excessive set final summer time.

Nevertheless, like Manhattan, the extent of latest rental listings is dropping off.

Taken collectively, an uptick in renter demand in Brooklyn may simply energy asking rents to new highs.

Certainly, even breaking down the information into neighborhoods exhibits that every one areas in Manhattan and Brooklyn stay below stress.

Final spring, I wrote about how rents sharply elevated on a share foundation as a result of pandemic’s whipsaw impact. At the moment, the speak was in regards to the surge in rents, which, when considered in opposition to pre-pandemic measures, had been up lower than 10%. Now, nonetheless, the dialogue just isn’t essentially in regards to the rise in rents, however reasonably the extent of lease. In different phrases, will rents ever go down once more?

Not anytime quickly, if the decrease quantity of provide has something to say. The next chart seems at how the month-to-month rental provide for 2023 in Manhattan (blue) and Brooklyn (pink) is doing this 12 months in comparison with the typical for every month in earlier years (2019-2022). The comparability exhibits a solidly damaging pattern that implies renters in the present day are coming into a really landlord-friendly surroundings. Trying again to the provision/demand dynamics charts earlier, it may be seen that rents are likely to fall considerably solely after a notable enhance in provide. That’s actually not the case in the present day in both Manhattan or Brooklyn.

With tight provide, renters will probably be compelled to compete to signal leases. Meaning asking rents ought to be seen extra as a information than a objective. In actuality, a wonderfully succesful house for lease in a wonderfully regular neighborhood asking $3,500 per thirty days will probably be swarmed with potential tenants. On this state of affairs, the ultimate lease may method $4,000 as individuals weigh their choices for not going larger than the following individual.

In brief, because the Manhattan and Brooklyn rental markets head into the busy summer time, all indicators level to larger rents within the months to come back. With tomorrow’s rents probably larger than in the present day’s, potential tenants needing to signal leases within the subsequent few months would do effectively to investigate their native market and weigh whether or not paying a premium in the present day to safe an house could be worthwhile, reasonably than doubtlessly paying much more in a few months. Alternatively, it could be price comparison-shopping the gross sales market over the summer time, when it’s usually quieter, to see if it could be time to purchase.