Good morning. Rishi Sunak hopes to unveil a deal between the UK and the EU to reform the Northern Eire protocol and finish the simmering disputes between the UK, the EU and the US. However it doesn’t matter what occurs, he faces a backlash from inside his occasion. Some ideas on how he’s making an attempt to handle that in at the moment’s word.

The wolf will lie down with der Leyen

Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Fee, is assembly Sunak at the moment in a bid to “put the problems with the protocol to mattress” and enhance relations between Brussels and London, within the phrases of 1 EU diplomat. (Discover additional evaluation by George Parker and Jude Webber on Sunak’s gamble of their long-read right here).

I’m not going to take a position about whether or not the deal will likely be delayed or collapse on the final minute, or how the parliamentary occasion goes to react to all of it, as a result of I believe there will likely be fairly sufficient of that from me over the approaching days, weeks and months. As an alternative I need to discuss concerning the politics of what Sunak is doing in the mean time.

One one that may be very a lot not impressed with the prime minister’s strategy is Anand Menon (morning Anand!), director of the UK in Altering Europe and professor of European politics and overseas affairs at King’s Faculty London. Anand thinks that Sunak ought to have been way more open concerning the negotiations to be able to have a greater likelihood of bringing the Democratic Unionist occasion and Brexiter ultras onboard. Right here’s what he advised George and Jude:

“That is very, very dangerous politics. He made a deal in secret, satisfied himself it may fly. He’s positioned an terrible lot of his credibility on the road.”

I not often disagree with Anand however on this event, I believe Sunak’s secretive strategy is the precise one. As I’ve mentioned earlier than, the last word drawback for the DUP is its dealing with of the Brexit affair has left it ready the place it has three choices: 1) invent time journey, 2) restore power-sharing and facilitate the primary Sinn Féin first minister 3) or discover an excuse to mothball devolved governance in Northern Eire.

There’s no prospect of Sunak reaching a deal that can assist the DUP accomplish 1). Accepting that Sunak has reached a great deal will drive them to do 2). So my underlying assumption is that no matter Sunak agrees is not going to be ok for the DUP, or the Tories. Among the Conservative occasion’s Brexit ultras will take their lead from the DUP, whereas others simply need an excuse to do hurt to Sunak politically. Downing Road is anxiously watching about 60 Tory MPs, out of a complete of 355, who’ve expressed issues concerning the deal taking form with Brussels.

Negotiating extra publicly additionally means letting his hardline Brexiters set their very own phrases and aims — of which there’s, to be frank, no critical hope or prospect of Sunak having the ability to fulfil.

By preserving his hand so near his chest, Sunak can create the impression that he has fought extremely onerous irrespective of how small the concessions he finally ends up bringing dwelling or how shut they’re to the unique provide firstly of his negotiations. Whereas he might not have finished sufficient to include the fallout from this deal inside his occasion, his secretive strategy has been the perfect accessible one.

Now do this

I very a lot loved the Alice Neel exhibition on the Barbican this weekend — Rachel Spence’s overview, that includes some pretty items from the exhibition, is a masterful information to Neel’s life and work. As regards to artwork and the UK, I devoured this week’s FT Journal cowl story by John Gapper, on Joshua Reynolds’ “Portrait of Omai” and why the UK is struggling to maintain nice works of British artwork in galleries.

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